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08/03/2010 - Watkins Glen, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It will be an enjoyable weekend of road course racing in both NASCAR and the IZOD IndyCar Series. The Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series wind their way through Watkins Glen, NY. The Camping World Truck Series competes on the Nashville Superspeedway oval. IndyCar will tackle the course at Mid-Ohio.
NASCAR
Sprint Cup Series
Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen - Watkins Glen International - Watkins Glen, NY
The Sprint Cup Series will run its second and final road course race of the season this weekend at Watkins Glen International in Upstate New York. The series competed at the Sonoma, CA course in June.
Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon are the "road course aces" at Watkins Glen, with Stewart winning here a record five times and Gordon having four victories.
Stewart claimed his most recent victory at Watkins Glen one year ago, a race that was delayed one day due to inclement weather. He conserved enough fuel late in the race and easily held off Marcos Ambrose at the finish for the win.
"It's a race that we always look forward to," said Stewart, who has finished either first or second in that last six races at Watkins Glen. "We've had a lot of success there, and it's just fun. It's like taking Sonoma and just multiplying the speed times three. It's just a lot faster track. It still has the same elevation changes, but you're just running a lot quicker. Both Sonoma and Watkins Glen are two places on the schedule that we really enjoy coming to."
Gordon holds the series record for most career road course wins. Five of them have come at Sonoma.
The last several races at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen have been wild affairs.
Last year at Watkins Glen, a spectacular multi-car crash occurred on lap 62 when Kasey Kahne got loose in turn nine and bumped Sam Hornish Jr., who spun hard into the tire barrier. Hornish then bounced back on the track and slammed violently into Gordon, who hit the barrier head on. Gordon spent additional time inside the track's infield medical center for evaluation, as a precaution for his recent back problems.
"I think the road courses are always intense and challenging in its own way," Gordon said. "I don't know if [Watkins Glen] will be as wild as Sonoma. In Sonoma, you can run side-by-side for half a lap on those double-file restarts. It's a special place.
"Watkins Glen is a lot faster, and you can't really run side-by-side up through the 'S's.' I don't think you'll see the same type of racing you saw at Sonoma, but you'll see a great race."
Gordon's wife, Ingrid, is expected to have the couple's second child in the coming days. Scott Pruett, a two-time Grand-Am Rolex Series champion and former NASCAR driver, is standing by if Gordon needs to leave Watkins Glen during the weekend to be with his wife.
In June, Gordon was a marked man in the Sonoma garage. Several drivers, particularly Martin Truex Jr., were furious with Gordon's aggressive driving throughout the 110-lap race.
Following the second restart on lap 61, Truex was running among the top-10, but Gordon slammed into the back of him and turned him around.
Gordon also tangled with Elliott Sadler and Kurt Busch during the 110-lap race. Gordon's Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Jimmie Johnson, claimed his first road course victory in the series at Sonoma. Johnson benefited from Ambrose's costly mistake in the closing laps. Ambrose held the lead, but the Australian driver turned his engine off in an effort to conserve fuel. He slowed down on the track and lost the top position, as he fell to seventh. After the final restart, Johnson pulled ahead of Robby Gordon and then drove to his first road course win in 17 starts.
Can Johnson, the four-time defending series champion, establish himself as this year's "road course king?"
The Glen's been the better of the two tracks for me, so I feel real good about going back there," he said.
Ambrose, a road-course expert, certainly will be a favorite at Watkins Glen. He has yet to win his first Sprint Cup race, but he has finished second and third in the last two races here. Ambrose also has won the Nationwide race at The Glen in the past two seasons.
"Well it's the right course; that helps for me," Ambrose said. "The competition is fierce, and that track is high speed. It's got an old style feel to it. There's a lot of banking in the turns, and a lot of high-speed corners. It fits what I like in a racetrack. It fits my style pretty well."
Forty-six teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen.
Nationwide Series
Zippo 200 - Watkins Glen International - Watkins Glen, NY
The Nationwide Series will join Sprint Cup this weekend at Watkins Glen International. This will be the second of three road course races for Nationwide this year. Carl Edwards won the inaugural event at the Road America road course in Wisconsin two months ago. Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal is scheduled for August 29.
Marcos Ambrose will attempt to win his third consecutive Nationwide race at Watkins Glen. If Ambrose does so, he will join Terry Labonte as those drivers who have won three Nationwide events in a row here. Labonte won at The Glen from 1994-96. He also scored the victory in the inaugural race here in 1991.
Ambrose, a Sprint Cup regular, has yet to compete in a Nationwide event this year. He ran a full-schedule in that series from 2007-08 before he was elevated to Cup full-time last year.
Ambrose competed in just two Nationwide races during the '09 season, with a win at Watkins Glen and a second-place finish at Montreal.
"I've got a good base setup that I carry to all the road course races, and I really know what I'm looking for," Ambrose said. "We don't have to muck around with trial and error, and I pretty much engineer it from the seat, because I have such a clear vision of what I need to do to get around these places well. I guess I lacked that at some ovals and other places we go to."
Kyle Busch is perhaps Ambrose's biggest threat for a three-peat at Watkins Glen. Busch has accumulated nine wins in his 17 Nationwide starts this year, including victories at Iowa last Saturday and O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis the week before. He is one win away from tying the series record for most victories in a season with 10, a record he shares with Sam Ard.
One more win in either the Sprint Cup, Nationwide or Camping World Series will give the 25-year-old Busch his 75th career victory in NASCAR.
"It's pretty big," Busch said. "It's a lot of them, but it's not quite where I want to be. The big number is 200, so hopefully I can get there. We're 25 away from cracking halfway there, and I might be able to get it here in the next two years, so that would be pretty cool."
Richard Petty holds the all-time record with 200 wins in NASCAR's premier series.
Busch has finished second to Ambrose in the last two Nationwide races at Watkins Glen.
Last year, Ambrose passed Busch late in the race, with a maneuver Ambrose called a "dive bomb," and one Busch referred to as "cheap-shotted."
Forty-two teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Zippo 200.
Camping World Truck Series
Nashville 200 - Nashville Superspeedway - Lebanon, TN
For the first time this year, the Camping World Truck Series will run at Nashville Superspeedway twice in the same season. Nashville picked up a second date for the 2010 truck season when the track's owner, Dover Motorsports, announced last October the closure of its Memphis property.
The series traditionally has competed at Nashville in the summer time. During the first weekend in April, Kyle Busch spent his Sprint Cup off-week by winning the truck event here. He will not compete in Saturday night's race due to his Cup and Nationwide Series obligations at Watkins Glen, NY.
Last Saturday when the trucks ran at Pocono for the first time, Aric Almirola slightly cut into Todd Bodine's points lead after Almirola finished fourth, compared to a 12th-place run for Bodine. With the 25-race season just past its half-way point, Bodine holds a 149-point advantage.
Four-time and defending series champion Ron Hornaday Jr. continued to tumble in the standings after a 29th-place finish at Pocono. Hornaday dropped to seventh in points (-268).
When the series raced at Nashville last year, Hornaday extended his series record to five consecutive race victories. He became the first driver to win five in a row in one of NASCAR's three national touring series since 1971. Richard Petty and Bobby Allison both did it in the Cup Series in 1971.
Hornaday also won a truck race at Nashville for the first time, as he finally earned his long-awaited Gibson guitar trophy.
"It's cool to look back on it and remember the win," Hornaday said. "I was just so excited to finally get that beautiful Gibson guitar. That is a very cool trophy. The thing about Nashville is that [Kevin Harvick Inc.] has run very well there with both our Truck and Nationwide programs. When we were in Nashville earlier this spring, Kevin and I just missed the set-up by a little. We have notes and are better prepared to go back to Nashville. I know we're going to have a great truck. I hope we have the same result as last year."
Hornaday's sixth and final win during his 2009 championship season came at Nashville. He had been without a victory this season until two weeks ago when he took O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis.
Thirty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Nashville 200.
IZOD INDYCAR SERIES
Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio - Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course - Lexington, OH
After running its last two races in Canada, the IZOD IndyCar Series returns to the United States with this weekend's Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. Mid-Ohio is the eighth of nine road/street course events on this year's schedule. The series will conclude road/street course racing for the season in two weeks at Sonoma, CA.
Last month's race at Edmonton turned out to be a bizarre finish and an expensive outcome for Team Penske driver Helio Castroneves.
Castroneves was leading in the closing laps at Edmonton when he was issued a black flag for blocking his teammate, Will Power, just after the final restart. He failed to take the drive-through pit-lane penalty.
At the conclusion of the race, Castroneves was penalized 20 seconds and placed at the tail end of the lead lap, which resulted in a 10th-place finish. Castroneves had crossed the line first, but Scott Dixon was awarded the win.
Castroneves was furious with the outcome of the race. He confronted two officials on pit road and made physical contact with one of them after he exited his car.
As a result, IndyCar officials earlier this week fined Castroneves $60,000 and placed him on probation for the remainder of the year for his post-race outburst at Edmonton. The Brazilian driver recently met with officials in Indianapolis to discuss his actions.
"I regret what occurred following the IZOD IndyCar Series race in Edmonton, and I apologize for my behavior, as I let my emotions get the better of me," Castroneves said in a statement. "Although my disappointment with being black- flagged while leading the race with just a few laps to go will probably always remain with me, I understand and accept the league's decision to penalize me for my reaction.
"I am ready to move forward, and I'm hoping to add to Team Penske's success at Mid-Ohio this weekend."
Heading to Mid-Ohio, Power holds a 50-point lead over Dario Franchitti, the defending series champion, and a 71-point advantage over Dixon, who is Franchitti's Chip Ganassi Racing teammate.
Power could clinch the series' new road/street course championship on Sunday. Earlier this year, IndyCar announced the expansion of its championship format, with the highest-scoring oval and road/street course drivers winning separate titles, starting this season.
So far, Power has won four road/street course events -- Sao Paulo, Brazil; St. Petersburg, FL; Watkins, NY and Toronto.
After Sonoma, the series will run its final four races on ovals.
The October 2 season-finale at Homestead will determine the oval titleholder and the overall IndyCar champion.
Dixon won last year's race at Mid-Ohio. He also scored the victory in the inaugural event here in 2007.
Twenty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio.
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The sophomo
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Stewart looking to master The Glen again >>
Watkins Glen, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday,
August 8. Race: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen. Site: Watkins Glen
International. Track: 2.45-mile road course. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps:
90. Miles:
Rangers to be put to auction Wednesday >>
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Ambrose aiming for Watkins Glen trifecta >>
Watkins Glen, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday,
August 7. Race: Zippo 200. Site: Watkins Glen International. Track: 2.45-mile
road course. Start time: 2:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 82. Miles: 200.9. 2009 winner:
Marcos Am
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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